Weekly Economic Update: November 4-8, 2013

Nov 12 2013

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Factory orders were down 0.1% in August and up 1.7% in September. The ISM services index edged up 1 point to 55.4 in October. GDP grew at a real annual rate of 2.8% in the 3rd quarter of 2013, according to the advance estimate. Consumer credit increased $13.74 billion in September to $3.051 trillion. The economy added 204,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in October as the unemployment rate ticked up to 7.3%. Personal income increased 0.5% in September while personal spending increased 0.2%. Initial jobless claims fell 9,000 to 336,000 for the week ended 11/2.

• Factory orders were down 0.1% in August and up 1.7% in September.

• The ISM services index edged up 1 point to 55.4 in October.

• GDP grew at a real annual rate of 2.8% in the 3rd quarter of 2013, according to the advance estimate. This follows a 2.5% rate of growth in the 2nd quarter. Growth came primarily from personal consumption expenditures, inventories, and imports (which declined). Overall, the economy is not as strong as the topline figure would suggest.

• Consumer credit increased $13.74 billion in September to $3.051 trillion. Revolving credit (i.e., credit cards) declined 0.24% while non-revolving credit (i.e., auto loans) were up 0.72%.

• The economy added 204,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in October as the unemployment rate ticked up to 7.3%. According to the establishment survey, private payrolls increased 212,000, and total nonfarm payroll growth averaged 190,000 per month over the year. Federal employees on furlough during the shutdown were still considered employed in the payroll survey because they worked or received pay for the pay period. However, the household survey indicates that the labor force fell by 720,000 over the month, bringing the labor force participation rate down 0.4 percentage point to 62.8%, and total employment fell by 735,000 with the employment-to-population ratio down 0.3 percentage point to 58.3%. The number of unemployed persons at 11.3 million remains relatively unchanged.

• Personal income increased 0.5% in September while personal spending increased 0.2%.

• Initial jobless claims fell 9,000 to 336,000 for the week ended November 2nd.

 

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