Weekly Economic Update: July 28 - August 1, 2014

Aug 04 2014

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The pending home sales index was down 1.1% in June to a level of 102.7. The Case-Shiller home price index fell 0.3% in May. In an advance estimate, second quarter GDP rose an annualized 4.0%. The FOMC announced that policy rates are unchanged at a target level of 0 to 0.25%, and tape remains on schedule to end with the October FOMC meeting. The economy added 209,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in July while the unemployment rate ticked up to 6.2%. Personal income rose 0.4% in June while personal spending rose 0.4%. The ISM index increased 1.8 points to 57.1 in July. Construction spending fell 1.8% in June. Vehicle sales fell 2.48% in July to a lower-than-expected 16.48 million annual unit rate. Initial jobless claims rose 23,000 to 302,000 for the week ended 7/26.

• The pending home sales index was down 1.1% in June to a level of 102.7.

• The Case-Shiller home price index fell 0.3% in May. On a year-ago basis, home prices are up 9.4% and up 1.1% over the month, not seasonally adjusted. The Washington, D.C. index is up 1.0% over the month.

• In an advance estimate, second quarter GDP rose an annualized 4.0%. The rebound was led by inventory growth. First quarter growth was revised up slightly to a decline of 2.1% (previously down 2.9%). Annual revisions show 2011 revised down to 1.6% from 1.8%, 2012 revised down to 2.3% from 2.8%, and 2013 revised up to 2.2% from 1.9%.

• The FOMC announced that policy rates are unchanged at a target level of 0 to 0.25%, and taper remains on schedule to end with the October FOMC meeting. In August, the Committee will add agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $10 billion per month and longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $15 billion per month.

• The economy added 209,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in July while the unemployment rate ticked up to 6.2%. Private payrolls were up 198,000. Total nonfarm payroll jobs saw a 298,000 gain in June and a 229,000 gain in May, for a net revision up 15,000 for the prior two months. Government jobs rose 11,000. The civilian labor force participation rate changed little at 62.9%, the number of persons in the labor force rose by 329,000. The number of persons not in the labor force fell by 119,000. The number of persons employed rose 131,000 while the number unemployed rose 197,000. The employment-to-population ratio remained unchanged at 59.0%.

• Personal income rose 0.4% in June while personal spending rose 0.4%. The PCE price index increased 0.2%, while core PCE was up 0.1%. On a year ago basis, headline PCE was up 1.6% while core PCE was up 1.5%.

• The ISM index increased 1.8 points to 57.1 in July.

• Construction spending fell 1.8% in June. On a year ago basis, construction spending is up 5.5%.

• Vehicle sales fell 2.48% in July to a lower-than-expected 16.48 million annual unit rate. On a year-ago basis, sales are up 4.58%.

• Initial jobless claims rose 23,000 to 302,000 for the week ended July 26th.

 

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