September 3, 2002 The Evolving Budget Outlook Download this chart. In January 2001, CBO projected cumulative surpluses of $5.61 trillion over the 2002-11 period. In CBO’s latest projections, that projected surplus had shrunk to just $336 billion. The Senate Budget Committee calculates that 34 percent of the deterioration is due to tax cuts (primarily the 2001 tax cut) and associated debt service. Other legislation accounts for 22 percent; 15 percent is directly due to a weaker economy; and 29 percent is due to technical changes, including reductions in revenue that may be due indirectly to a weaker economy. These are baseline estimates that assume current policies continue, the provisions of the 2001 tax cut are not made permanent, and no other legislative changes are enacted.