January 2026 | Released March 13, 2026


+2.83 percent
PCE price index inflation
Jan 2025 to Jan 2026
+0.10 percent
Change in real PCE
Dec 2025 to Jan 2026
+0.43 percent
Change in personal income
Dec 2025 to Jan 2026


Expenditures and inflation


From December 2025 to January 2026:

  • Headline PCE price index inflation was 0.28 percent.
  • Core PCE price index inflation was 0.36 percent. This excludes food and energy prices, which tend to be more volatile.
  • All services inflation was 0.38 percent.
  • All goods inflation was 0.05 percent.
    • Durable goods inflation was 0.41 percent.
    • Nondurable goods inflation was -0.15 percent.


  • Real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased by 0.10 percent, or $17.01 billion.
  • Real PCE on all services increased by 0.33 percent, or $36.66 billion.
  • Real PCE on all goods decreased by 0.42 percent, or $23.68 billion.
    • Real PCE on durable goods decreased by 1.15 percent, or $24.52 billion.
    • Real PCE on nondurable goods decreased by 0.03 percent, or $1.05 billion.


  • The nominal personal savings rate increased by 0.5 percentage points to 4.5 percent.


From January 2025 to January 2026:

  • Headline PCE price index inflation was 2.83 percent, which is higher than the Federal Reserve’s target of 2 percent.
  • Core PCE price index inflation was 3.06 percent.



Income and savings


From December 2025 to January 2026:



Table 1. Income and Consumption Indicators

Jan 2026 Dec 2025 Chg. from Dec 2025
Income and outlays growth (m/m)
Real Disposable Personal Income 0.67% -0.03% +0.70pp
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures 0.10% 0.08% +0.02pp
Month-over-month PCE inflation
Headline 0.28% 0.36% -0.08pp
Core 0.36% 0.36% +0.00pp
Year-over-year PCE inflation
Headline 2.83% 2.91% -0.08pp
Core 3.06% 3.01% +0.05pp


Table 2. Cleveland Federal Reserve Forecast

Cleveland Fed forecast Actual Forecast error
Month-over-month PCE inflation
Headline 0.20% 0.28% -0.08pp
Core 0.27% 0.36% -0.09pp
Year-over-year PCE inflation
Headline 2.75% 2.83% -0.08pp
Core 2.95% 3.06% -0.11pp


Table 3. Personal Consumption Expenditures by category

Expenditure category Jan 2026 Dec 2025 Chg. from Dec 2025 Jan 2025 Chg. from Jan 2025
Housing and utilities $3,909.2B
(18.15%)
$3,884.8B
(18.11%)
+0.63%
(+0.05pp)
$3,741.8B
(18.29%)
+4.47%
(-0.14pp)
Health care $3,701.9B
(17.19%)
$3,664.6B
(17.08%)
+1.02%
(+0.11pp)
$3,432.2B
(16.77%)
+7.86%
(+0.42pp)
Financial services and insurance $1,788.7B
(8.31%)
$1,772.8B
(8.26%)
+0.90%
(+0.04pp)
$1,618.3B
(7.91%)
+10.53%
(+0.40pp)
Food and beverages purchased for off-premises consumption $1,552.9B
(7.21%)
$1,544.6B
(7.20%)
+0.54%
(+0.01pp)
$1,513.8B
(7.40%)
+2.58%
(-0.19pp)
Food services and accommodations $1,518.3B
(7.05%)
$1,519.6B
(7.08%)
-0.08%
(-0.03pp)
$1,461.2B
(7.14%)
+3.91%
(-0.09pp)
Pharmaceutical and other medical products $739.2B
(3.43%)
$745.9B
(3.48%)
-0.89%
(-0.04pp)
$694.5B
(3.39%)
+6.44%
(+0.04pp)
Transportation services $725.8B
(3.37%)
$724.2B
(3.38%)
+0.22%
(-0.01pp)
$686.1B
(3.35%)
+5.77%
(+0.02pp)
Recreational goods and vehicles $724.5B
(3.36%)
$717.1B
(3.34%)
+1.03%
(+0.02pp)
$675.6B
(3.30%)
+7.23%
(+0.06pp)
Motor vehicles and parts $721.8B
(3.35%)
$751.1B
(3.50%)
-3.90%
(-0.15pp)
$729.4B
(3.56%)
-1.04%
(-0.21pp)
Clothing and footwear $572.0B
(2.66%)
$575.4B
(2.68%)
-0.58%
(-0.03pp)
$543.5B
(2.66%)
+5.24%
(-0.00pp)
Furnishings and durable household equipment $516.1B
(2.40%)
$511.1B
(2.38%)
+0.98%
(+0.01pp)
$499.2B
(2.44%)
+3.38%
(-0.04pp)
Gasoline and other energy goods $418.8B
(1.94%)
$434.1B
(2.02%)
-3.53%
(-0.08pp)
$452.2B
(2.21%)
-7.39%
(-0.27pp)
Education services $368.4B
(1.71%)
$366.0B
(1.71%)
+0.65%
(+0.00pp)
$357.6B
(1.75%)
+3.03%
(-0.04pp)
Communication $323.5B
(1.50%)
$320.9B
(1.50%)
+0.80%
(+0.01pp)
$314.7B
(1.54%)
+2.79%
(-0.04pp)
All other expenditures $3,955.4B
(18.37%)
$3,923.4B
(18.29%)
+0.82%
(+0.08pp)
$3,741.9B
(18.29%)
+5.71%
(+0.08pp)

Note: Each month column shows the nominal dollar amount at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) for each expenditure category and its share of total expenditure in parentheses. In the gray “change” columns, the percent value indicates the change in the annualized dollar amount over the period, and the percentage-point value in parentheses indicates the change in that category’s share of total expenditure over the period.


Upcoming releases


Date Time Release Data source
Mar 27 08:30 AM Monthly Expenditures Update, February 2026 Bureau of Economic Analysis
Mar 27 08:30 AM Monthly GDP Update, Q4 2025 Third Estimate Bureau of Economic Analysis
Apr 02 08:30 AM Monthly Trade Update, February 2026 Bureau of Economic Analysis
Apr 03 08:30 AM Monthly Employment Update, March 2026 Bureau of Labor Statistics
Apr 07 10:00 AM Monthly Debt Update, April 2026 U.S. Treasury
Apr 08 10:00 AM State Employment and Unemployment, January 2026 Bureau of Labor Statistics
Apr 10 08:30 AM Monthly Inflation Update, March 2026 Bureau of Labor Statistics
Apr 13 10:00 AM Monthly Fiscal Update, March 2026 U.S. Treasury


Notes


Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis; JEC Republicans calculations

“pp” = percentage points; “M/M” = month over month; “Y/Y” = year over year

Consistent with the Bureau of Economic Analysis, monthly figures are seasonally adjusted. Discrepancy in change figures is possible due to rounding.