| Jan 2026 | Dec 2025 | Chg. from Dec 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Income and outlays growth (m/m) | |||
| Real Disposable Personal Income | 0.67% | -0.03% | +0.70pp |
| Real Personal Consumption Expenditures | 0.10% | 0.08% | +0.02pp |
| Month-over-month PCE inflation | |||
| Headline | 0.28% | 0.36% | -0.08pp |
| Core | 0.36% | 0.36% | +0.00pp |
| Year-over-year PCE inflation | |||
| Headline | 2.83% | 2.91% | -0.08pp |
| Core | 3.06% | 3.01% | +0.05pp |
| Cleveland Fed forecast | Actual | Forecast error | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Month-over-month PCE inflation | |||
| Headline | 0.20% | 0.28% | -0.08pp |
| Core | 0.27% | 0.36% | -0.09pp |
| Year-over-year PCE inflation | |||
| Headline | 2.75% | 2.83% | -0.08pp |
| Core | 2.95% | 3.06% | -0.11pp |
| Expenditure category | Jan 2026 | Dec 2025 | Chg. from Dec 2025 | Jan 2025 | Chg. from Jan 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Housing and utilities |
$3,909.2B (18.15%) |
$3,884.8B (18.11%) |
+0.63% (+0.05pp) |
$3,741.8B (18.29%) |
+4.47% (-0.14pp) |
| Health care |
$3,701.9B (17.19%) |
$3,664.6B (17.08%) |
+1.02% (+0.11pp) |
$3,432.2B (16.77%) |
+7.86% (+0.42pp) |
| Financial services and insurance |
$1,788.7B (8.31%) |
$1,772.8B (8.26%) |
+0.90% (+0.04pp) |
$1,618.3B (7.91%) |
+10.53% (+0.40pp) |
| Food and beverages purchased for off-premises consumption |
$1,552.9B (7.21%) |
$1,544.6B (7.20%) |
+0.54% (+0.01pp) |
$1,513.8B (7.40%) |
+2.58% (-0.19pp) |
| Food services and accommodations |
$1,518.3B (7.05%) |
$1,519.6B (7.08%) |
-0.08% (-0.03pp) |
$1,461.2B (7.14%) |
+3.91% (-0.09pp) |
| Pharmaceutical and other medical products |
$739.2B (3.43%) |
$745.9B (3.48%) |
-0.89% (-0.04pp) |
$694.5B (3.39%) |
+6.44% (+0.04pp) |
| Transportation services |
$725.8B (3.37%) |
$724.2B (3.38%) |
+0.22% (-0.01pp) |
$686.1B (3.35%) |
+5.77% (+0.02pp) |
| Recreational goods and vehicles |
$724.5B (3.36%) |
$717.1B (3.34%) |
+1.03% (+0.02pp) |
$675.6B (3.30%) |
+7.23% (+0.06pp) |
| Motor vehicles and parts |
$721.8B (3.35%) |
$751.1B (3.50%) |
-3.90% (-0.15pp) |
$729.4B (3.56%) |
-1.04% (-0.21pp) |
| Clothing and footwear |
$572.0B (2.66%) |
$575.4B (2.68%) |
-0.58% (-0.03pp) |
$543.5B (2.66%) |
+5.24% (-0.00pp) |
| Furnishings and durable household equipment |
$516.1B (2.40%) |
$511.1B (2.38%) |
+0.98% (+0.01pp) |
$499.2B (2.44%) |
+3.38% (-0.04pp) |
| Gasoline and other energy goods |
$418.8B (1.94%) |
$434.1B (2.02%) |
-3.53% (-0.08pp) |
$452.2B (2.21%) |
-7.39% (-0.27pp) |
| Education services |
$368.4B (1.71%) |
$366.0B (1.71%) |
+0.65% (+0.00pp) |
$357.6B (1.75%) |
+3.03% (-0.04pp) |
| Communication |
$323.5B (1.50%) |
$320.9B (1.50%) |
+0.80% (+0.01pp) |
$314.7B (1.54%) |
+2.79% (-0.04pp) |
| All other expenditures |
$3,955.4B (18.37%) |
$3,923.4B (18.29%) |
+0.82% (+0.08pp) |
$3,741.9B (18.29%) |
+5.71% (+0.08pp) |
Note: Each month column shows the nominal dollar amount at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) for each expenditure category and its share of total expenditure in parentheses. In the gray “change” columns, the percent value indicates the change in the annualized dollar amount over the period, and the percentage-point value in parentheses indicates the change in that category’s share of total expenditure over the period.
| Date | Time | Release | Data source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 27 | 08:30 AM | Monthly Expenditures Update, February 2026 | Bureau of Economic Analysis |
| Mar 27 | 08:30 AM | Monthly GDP Update, Q4 2025 Third Estimate | Bureau of Economic Analysis |
| Apr 02 | 08:30 AM | Monthly Trade Update, February 2026 | Bureau of Economic Analysis |
| Apr 03 | 08:30 AM | Monthly Employment Update, March 2026 | Bureau of Labor Statistics |
| Apr 07 | 10:00 AM | Monthly Debt Update, April 2026 | U.S. Treasury |
| Apr 08 | 10:00 AM | State Employment and Unemployment, January 2026 | Bureau of Labor Statistics |
| Apr 10 | 08:30 AM | Monthly Inflation Update, March 2026 | Bureau of Labor Statistics |
| Apr 13 | 10:00 AM | Monthly Fiscal Update, March 2026 | U.S. Treasury |
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis; JEC Republicans calculations
“pp” = percentage points; “M/M” = month over month; “Y/Y” = year over year
Consistent with the Bureau of Economic Analysis, monthly figures are seasonally adjusted. Discrepancy in change figures is possible due to rounding.