Q4 2025, Second Estimate

Released March 13, 2026

+0.65 percent
Change in real GDP
Q3 2025 to Q4 2025, annualized

+4.50 percent
Change in current-dollar GDP
Q3 2025 to Q4 2025, annualized

$31.442T
Current-dollar GDP
Q4 2025

From Q3 2025 to Q4 2025:

• Real GDP increased by 0.65 percent annualized.
• Current-dollar nominal GDP increased by 4.5 percent annualized, or $344.456 billion, to a level of $31.442 trillion, the current size of the U.S. economy.
• The ratio of debt held by the public to GDP decreased by -0.01 percentage points to 99.26 percent, and the ratio of total national debt to GDP decreased by -0.54 percentage points to 123.30 percent.

• Real GDP growth was revised downward by 0.77 percentage points from the previous estimate.
• Current-dollar GDP growth was revised downward by 0.63 percentage points from the previous estimate.

Table 1. Gross domestic product

	Q4 2025	Q3 2025	Chg. from Q3 2025	Q4 2024	Chg. from Q4 2024
Size of the U.S. Economy
Nominal GDP	$31,442.5B	$31,098.0B	$344.5B	$29,825.2B	$1,617.3B
Real GDP	$24,066.0B	$24,026.8B	$39.1B	$23,586.5B	$479.4B

Table 2. Contributions to real gross domestic product growth

	Q4 2025	Q3 2025	Chg. from Q3 2025
Quarterly growth rate, annualized (pp)
Nominal GDP	4.5	8.3	-3.8pp
– GDP deflator	3.8	3.9	-0.1pp
= Real GDP	0.7	4.4	-3.7pp
Contribution of subcomponents (pp)
Consumer spending	1.3	2.3	-1.0pp
Nonresidential fixed investment	0.3	0.4	-0.1pp
Residential investment	0.0	-0.3	0.3pp
Change in private inventories	0.3	-0.1	0.4pp
Net exports	-0.2	1.6	-1.8pp
Government spending	-1.0	0.4	-1.4pp
Total real GDP growth	0.7	4.4	-3.7pp
Subcomponent growth rates (pp)
Consumption	2.0	3.5	-1.5pp
Investment	3.3	0.0	3.3pp
Exports	-3.3	9.6	-12.9pp
Imports	-1.1	-4.4	3.3pp
Government expenditures	-5.8	2.2	-8.0pp

Upcoming releases

Date	Time	Release	Data source
Mar 27	08:30 AM	Monthly Expenditures Update, February 2026	Bureau of Economic Analysis
Mar 27	08:30 AM	Monthly GDP Update, Q4 2025 Third Estimate	Bureau of Economic Analysis
Apr 02	08:30 AM	Monthly Trade Update, February 2026	Bureau of Economic Analysis
Apr 03	08:30 AM	Monthly Employment Update, March 2026	Bureau of Labor Statistics
Apr 07	10:00 AM	Monthly Debt Update, April 2026	U.S. Treasury
Apr 08	10:00 AM	State Employment and Unemployment, January 2026	Bureau of Labor Statistics
Apr 10	08:30 AM	Monthly Inflation Update, March 2026	Bureau of Labor Statistics
Apr 13	10:00 AM	Monthly Fiscal Update, March 2026	U.S. Treasury

Notes

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis; U.S. Treasury; JEC Republicans calculations

“pp” = percentage points

“Real” values are expressed in chained 2017 dollars.

Discrepancy in change figures is possible due to rounding.