July 2025

Released August 12, 2025


+2.70 percent
Consumer Price Index inflation
Jul 2024 to Jul 2025
+0.20 percent
Consumer Price Index inflation
Jun 2025 to Jul 2025
+0.43 percent
Change in real average weekly earnings
Jun 2025 to Jul 2025


Consumer Price Index



From June 2025 to July 2025:

  • Headline CPI-U inflation was 0.20 percent.
    • Food price inflation was 0.05 percent.
    • Energy price inflation was -1.07 percent.
  • Core CPI-U inflation was 0.32 percent.


From July 2024 to July 2025:

  • Headline CPI-U inflation was 2.70 percent.
    • Food price inflation was 2.87 percent.
    • Energy price inflation was -1.55 percent.
  • Core CPI-U inflation was 3.06 percent.


Note: Core CPI-U excludes food and energy.





Table 1. Consumer Price Index inflation

Jul 2025 Jun 2025 M/M difference Jul 2024 Y/Y difference
Month-over-month inflation
Consumer Price Index 0.20% 0.29% -0.09pp 0.14% 0.06pp
Core Consumer Price Index 0.32% 0.23% 0.09pp 0.19% 0.13pp
Food Consumer Price Index 0.05% 0.33% -0.28pp 0.15% -0.10pp
Energy Consumer Price Index -1.07% 0.95% -2.02pp -0.43% -0.64pp
Year-over-year inflation
Consumer Price Index 2.70% 2.67% 0.03pp 2.89% -0.19pp
Core Consumer Price Index 3.06% 2.93% 0.13pp 3.17% -0.11pp
Food Consumer Price Index 2.87% 2.97% -0.10pp 2.18% 0.69pp
Energy Consumer Price Index -1.55% -0.83% -0.72pp 1.07% -2.62pp


Table 2. Cleveland Federal Reserve forecast

Cleveland Fed forecast Actual Forecast error
Month-over-month inflation
Consumer Price Index 0.16% 0.20% -0.04pp
Core Consumer Price Index 0.24% 0.32% -0.08pp
Year-over-year inflation
Consumer Price Index 2.72% 2.70% 0.02pp
Core Consumer Price Index 3.04% 3.06% -0.02pp


Real earnings


From June 2025 to July 2025:

For all employees on private nonfarm payrolls:

For production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls:

Note: “Real” measures are those adjusted for inflation.

Note: Weekly earnings are a better estimate of income than hourly earnings because they take into account the amount of hours worked.


Table 3. Change in real earnings

Jul 2025 Jun 2025 M/M difference Jul 2024 Y/Y difference
All employees
Real hourly earnings change
Month-over-month 0.09% 0.00% 0.09pp 0.00% 0.09pp
Year-over-year 1.16% 1.07% 0.09pp 0.63% 0.53pp
Real weekly earnings change
Month-over-month 0.43% -0.33% 0.76pp -0.23% 0.66pp
Year-over-year 1.44% 0.77% 0.67pp 0.38% 1.06pp
Production and non-supervisory
Real hourly earnings change
Month-over-month 0.10% 0.10% 0.00pp 0.20% -0.10pp
Year-over-year 1.33% 1.43% -0.10pp 1.03% 0.30pp
Real weekly earnings change
Month-over-month 0.42% -0.20% 0.62pp 0.20% 0.22pp
Year-over-year 1.28% 1.07% 0.21pp 0.72% 0.56pp


Upcoming releases


Date Time Release Data source
Aug 13 10:00 AM Monthly Fiscal Update, July 2025 U.S. Treasury
Aug 19 10:00 AM State Employment Update, July 2025 Bureau of Labor Statistics
Aug 28 08:30 AM Monthly GDP Update, Q2 2025 Second Estimate Bureau of Economic Analysis
Aug 29 08:30 AM Monthly Expenditures Update, July 2025 Bureau of Economic Analysis
Sep 04 08:30 AM Monthly Trade Update, July 2025 Bureau of Economic Analysis
Sep 05 08:30 AM Monthly Employment Update, August 2025 Bureau of Labor Statistics
Sep 08 10:00 AM Monthly Debt Update, September 2025 U.S. Treasury
Sep 11 08:30 AM Monthly Inflation Update, August 2025 Bureau of Labor Statistics
Sep 12 10:00 AM Monthly Fiscal Update, August 2025 U.S. Treasury


Notes


Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; JEC Republicans calculations

“pp” = percentage points; “M/M” = month over month; “Y/Y” = year over year

Consistent with the Bureau of Labor Statistics, monthly figures are seasonally adjusted. Discrepancy in change figures is possible due to rounding.