August 2025 | Released September 11, 2025


+2.92 percent
Consumer Price Index inflation
Aug 2024 to Aug 2025
+0.38 percent
Consumer Price Index inflation
Jul 2025 to Aug 2025
-0.11 percent
Change in real average weekly earnings
Jul 2025 to Aug 2025


Consumer Price Index


From July 2025 to August 2025:

  • Headline CPI-U inflation was 0.38 percent.
    • Food price inflation was 0.46 percent.
    • Energy price inflation was 0.69 percent.
  • Core CPI-U inflation was 0.35 percent.

From August 2024 to August 2025:

  • Headline CPI-U inflation was 2.92 percent.
    • Food price inflation was 3.19 percent.
    • Energy price inflation was 0.22 percent.
  • Core CPI-U inflation was 3.11 percent.

Note: Core CPI-U excludes food and energy.





Table 1. Consumer Price Index inflation

Aug 2025 Jul 2025 M/M difference Aug 2024 Y/Y difference
Month-over-month inflation
Consumer Price Index 0.38% 0.20% 0.18pp 0.18% 0.20pp
Core Consumer Price Index 0.35% 0.32% 0.03pp 0.28% 0.07pp
Food Consumer Price Index 0.46% 0.05% 0.41pp 0.15% 0.31pp
Energy Consumer Price Index 0.69% -1.07% 1.76pp -0.99% 1.68pp
Year-over-year inflation
Consumer Price Index 2.92% 2.70% 0.22pp 2.53% 0.39pp
Core Consumer Price Index 3.11% 3.06% 0.05pp 3.20% -0.09pp
Food Consumer Price Index 3.19% 2.87% 0.32pp 2.05% 1.14pp
Energy Consumer Price Index 0.22% -1.55% 1.77pp -3.98% 4.20pp


Table 2. Cleveland Federal Reserve forecast

Cleveland Fed forecast Actual Forecast error
Month-over-month inflation
Consumer Price Index 0.30% 0.38% -0.08pp
Core Consumer Price Index 0.25% 0.35% -0.10pp
Year-over-year inflation
Consumer Price Index 2.84% 2.92% -0.08pp
Core Consumer Price Index 3.05% 3.11% -0.06pp


Real earnings


From July 2025 to August 2025:

For all employees on private nonfarm payrolls:

  • Real average weekly earnings decreased by 0.11 percent.
  • Real average hourly earnings decreased by 0.09 percent.

For production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls:

  • Real average weekly earnings decreased by 0.01 percent.
  • Real average hourly earnings remained unchanged with a net change of 0.00 percent.

Note: “Real” measures are those adjusted for inflation.

Note: Weekly earnings are a better estimate of income than hourly earnings because they take into account the amount of hours worked.


Table 3. Change in real earnings

Aug 2025 Jul 2025 M/M difference Aug 2024 Y/Y difference
All employees
Real hourly earnings change
Month-over-month -0.09% 0.18% -0.27pp 0.36% -0.45pp
Year-over-year 0.71% 1.16% -0.45pp 1.36% -0.65pp
Real weekly earnings change
Month-over-month -0.11% 0.13% -0.24pp 0.57% -0.68pp
Year-over-year 0.43% 1.12% -0.69pp 1.01% -0.58pp
Production and non-supervisory
Real hourly earnings change
Month-over-month 0.00% 0.10% -0.10pp 0.20% -0.20pp
Year-over-year 1.12% 1.33% -0.21pp 1.65% -0.53pp
Real weekly earnings change
Month-over-month -0.01% 0.42% -0.43pp 0.19% -0.20pp
Year-over-year 1.08% 1.28% -0.20pp 1.39% -0.31pp


Upcoming releases


Date Time Release Data source
Sep 12 10:00 AM Monthly Fiscal Update, August 2025 U.S. Treasury
Sep 19 10:00 AM State Employment Update, August 2025 Bureau of Labor Statistics
Sep 25 08:30 AM Monthly GDP Update, Q2 2025 Third Estimate Bureau of Economic Analysis
Sep 26 08:30 AM Monthly Expenditures Update, August 2025 Bureau of Economic Analysis
Oct 03 08:30 AM Monthly Employment Update, September 2025 Bureau of Labor Statistics
Oct 07 10:00 AM Monthly Debt Update, October 2025 U.S. Treasury
Oct 07 08:30 AM Monthly Trade Update, August 2025 Bureau of Economic Analysis


Notes


Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; JEC Republicans calculations

“pp” = percentage points; “M/M” = month over month; “Y/Y” = year over year

Consistent with the Bureau of Labor Statistics, monthly figures are seasonally adjusted. Discrepancy in change figures is possible due to rounding.