Comparing U.S. Economic Uncertainty to the U.K.’s Brexit Experience, the Joint Economic Committee – Minority Finds That Continued Tariff Uncertainty Could Reduce U.S. Manufacturing Investments By More Than 13 Percent Per Year; More than $490 Billion by 2029

 WASHINGTON – The Joint Economic Committee – Minority released a new report today finding that the economic uncertainty stemming from President Trump’s tariffs has already directly harmed the U.S. manufacturing sector and could cost the U.S. more than $490 billion in manufacturing investments by 2029. The report comes as recently-released Producer Price Index (PPI) data show mounting pressures on the manufacturing sector, with key input prices increasing at a faster annualrate than they have in years.

Since April, the Trump administration has made nearly 100 different tariff policy decisions (including threats, delays, and reversals), which has caused economic uncertainty to skyrocket. In and of itself, this uncertainty has already undermined the U.S. economy. Even after the administration’s August 1^st trade deal deadline, the rate of tariffs on many countries is still in flux.

Using both U.S. business investment growth projections and economic analyses of uncertainty for U.K. businesses in the years following the U.K. Brexit vote to leave the European Union, the Committee found that:

• A prolonged period of economic uncertainty in the U.S. – as the U.K. faced – could result in more than a 13 percent decrease in manufacturing investment per year, totaling more than $490 billion by 2029
  
  
• Since April, when Trump announced his “Liberation Day” tariffs, the U.S. has lost 37,000 manufacturing jobs and hiring in the manufacturing sector has dropped to the lowest level in nearly a decade

• After a surge during the previous administration, manufacturing construction spending has been in decline since Trump took office, as businesses refrain from making major investments amidst the economic uncertainty
  
  

• Even if the uncertainty about the U.S. economy were to completely end tomorrow, the uncertainty that businesses have already experienced because of tariffs will have long term effects on U.S. manufacturing
  
  

• Committee calculations find that the economic uncertainty experienced just in April could result in a one percent reduction in manufacturing investment per year, a loss of more than $42 billion by 2029.

“Strengthening American manufacturing is critical to the future of our economy and our national security,” said Joint Economic Committee Ranking Member Maggie Hassan (D-NH). “While President Trump promised that he would expand our manufacturing sector, this report shows that, instead, the chaos and uncertainty created by his tariffs has placed a burden on American manufacturers that could weigh our country down for years to come.”

Read the full Joint Economic Committee – Minority report here.

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