The Federal Reserve faces a fundamental question that will have an enormous impact on the livelihoods of millions of Americans—what is the lowest unemployment rate possible that doesn’t cause an unacceptable level of inflation?

Economists long have thought that the economy is at “full employment” at a rate of around five percent. Below that, employers would be forced to pay higher wages to attract and retain workers, which in turn would compel them to raise prices, sparking inflation. The theoretical trade-off between unemployment and inflation is what is known as the Phillips Curve.

However, while the current unemployment rate is extremely low at 3.6 percent, inflation remains below the Federal Reserve’s two percent target. Wages have risen, but below expectations. For this reason, some suggest that the Phillips Curve no longer applies.

Read the Report

Guns and Suicide

Oct 21 2019

Suicide is the 10th leading cause of death in the United States, responsible for more American deaths than Parkinson’s disease, liver disease or hypertension. In 2017, the most recent year for which data are available, more than 47,000 Americans died by suicide—an average of 129 per day. The number of suicide deaths is dwarfed by the number of attempts—estimated at roughly 1.4 million in the United States that same year. More than 10 million American adults reported that they seriously thought about suicide in 2017.

The problem is getting worse. According to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the age-adjusted rate of suicide in the United States rose by about 30 percent in the last two decades, with increases for almost every age group. The suicide rate has increased every year for the past decade.

The growing suicide rate in the United States is driven in large part by the lethality and easy accessibility of guns, which in 2017 were used in more than half of suicides. About 85 percent of those who attempt suicide with a gun die; without a gun, about 95 percent survive. Research shows that the impulse of suicide often is sudden and transitory, and nine of 10 survivors do not attempt again. An analysis of 14 scientific studies found that having access to a firearm triples the risk of death by suicide. 

Almost 60 million Latinos live in the United States, making up approximately 18 percent of the population. It is estimated that by 2060 approximately one in four people living in the United States will be Latino or of Hispanic heritage.

More than half of the Hispanic population lives in just five states—California, Texas, Florida, New York and Arizona—and more than 90 percent of all Hispanics live in metropolitan areas. However, those patterns are changing; there are now almost as many Hispanics in the South as in the West. States in other parts of the country, as well as some small cities and towns, also are experiencing rapidly growing Hispanic populations.

Approximately two-thirds of American Latinos were born in the United States. Twenty-two percent of Latinos are non-citizens and 13 percent are foreign-born individuals who have become American citizens. Latino immigrants have an important role to play in the U.S. economy. However, they tend to be less educated and earn less than the native-born population. Their children will be more likely than their parents to earn a higher education and achieve economic success.

Overall, Hispanics will take on an increasingly important role in the U.S. economy, which requires a growing number of workers to expand at a rate necessary to sustain general prosperity. Hispanics may play an outsized role because they are more likely than non-Hispanics to be working or seeking work and they are significantly more likely to be entrepreneurs.

Read the report