FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
June 30, 2025
NEW: Amended Senate Budget Bill Would Trigger Nearly 20 Million People Losing Health Insurance
Updated Analysis Also Includes State-by-State Coverage Loss Estimates
WASHINGTON – The Joint Economic Committee – Minority released updated data, broken down by state, that shows that the Senate budget bill, if amended as indicated by Senate leadership, would trigger nearly 20 million losing their health insurance.
The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) found in a June 27th analysis that President Trump and Congressional Republicans’ cuts to Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act (ACA) would result in 17 million people losing their health insurance by 2034. Senator Rick Scott (R-FL) has put forward an amendment that appears to end Medicaid Expansion in 9 states that have automatic “trigger laws” to immediately end the program if the federal matching percentage is reduced. Based on CBO’s analysis and other research, the Joint Economic Committee – Minority has preliminarily found that due to these “trigger laws,” the Scott amendment would mean that millions more people lose their coverage in those 9 states. In total, nearly 20 million people across the country would lose their health insurance under the amended budget bill. Given the deep cuts required by Senator Scott’s amendment, other states across the country could be forced to end Medicaid Expansion as well. If all states that currently have statutory Medicaid Expansion end it due to the Scott amendment along with the other Medicaid cuts in the Senate bill, 29 million people across the country could lose their health insurance.
The Committee fact sheet, available here, provides updated estimates for all 50 states and D.C. of the estimated number of people losing their health insurance, and is below.
|
State |
People Losing Coverage (Est.): Senate Bill Unamended |
People Losing Coverage (Est.): Senate Bill |
People Losing Coverage (Est.): Senate Bill |
|
Alabama |
219,809 |
219,809 |
219,809 |
|
Alaska |
39,989 |
39,989 |
89,935 |
|
Arizona* |
365,984 |
750,509 |
750,509 |
|
Arkansas* |
158,745 |
310,496 |
310,496 |
|
California |
2,368,466 |
2,368,466 |
5,368,545 |
|
Colorado |
240,953 |
240,953 |
471,023 |
|
Connecticut |
186,580 |
186,580 |
361,679 |
|
Delaware |
54,957 |
54,957 |
123,722 |
|
D.C. |
46,260 |
46,260 |
99,249 |
|
Florida |
1,936,421 |
1,936,421 |
1,936,421 |
|
Georgia |
651,540 |
651,540 |
651,540 |
|
Hawai?i |
62,483 |
62,483 |
156,680 |
|
Idaho |
72,815 |
72,815 |
133,985 |
|
Illinois* |
535,849 |
1,131,306 |
1,131,306 |
|
Indiana* |
267,996 |
701,575 |
701,575 |
|
Iowa |
113,979 |
113,979 |
251,895 |
|
Kansas |
92,937 |
92,937 |
92,937 |
|
Kentucky |
184,526 |
184,526 |
519,693 |
|
Louisiana |
267,550 |
267,550 |
736,905 |
|
Maine |
61,466 |
61,466 |
128,657 |
|
Maryland |
245,929 |
245,929 |
513,131 |
|
Massachusetts |
326,262 |
326,262 |
498,597 |
|
Michigan |
453,101 |
453,101 |
966,262 |
|
Minnesota |
173,268 |
173,268 |
327,761 |
|
Mississippi |
153,910 |
153,910 |
153,910 |
|
Missouri** |
265,298 |
265,298 |
265,298 |
|
Montana* |
55,981 |
105,899 |
105,899 |
|
Nebraska |
78,275 |
78,275 |
127,189 |
|
Nevada |
114,500 |
114,500 |
367,649 |
|
New Hampshire* |
46,388 |
88,231 |
88,231 |
|
New Jersey |
363,330 |
363,330 |
744,184 |
|
New Mexico |
111,997 |
111,997 |
279,645 |
|
New York |
1,019,121 |
1,019,121 |
2,127,798 |
|
North Carolina* |
651,982 |
873,638 |
873,638 |
|
North Dakota |
24,488 |
24,488 |
43,550 |
|
Ohio |
489,815 |
489,815 |
946,010 |
|
Oklahoma** |
211,794 |
211,794 |
211,794 |
|
Oregon |
198,089 |
198,089 |
652,134 |
|
Pennsylvania |
483,868 |
483,868 |
1,076,679 |
|
Rhode Island |
47,359 |
47,359 |
97,472 |
|
South Carolina |
285,857 |
285,857 |
285,857 |
|
South Dakota** |
33,838 |
33,838 |
33,838 |
|
Tennessee |
310,056 |
310,056 |
310,056 |
|
Texas |
1,671,965 |
1,671,965 |
1,671,965 |
|
Utah* |
188,494 |
237,370 |
237,370 |
|
Vermont |
35,242 |
35,242 |
76,151 |
|
Virginia* |
322,984 |
912,372 |
912,372 |
|
Washington |
328,695 |
328,695 |
780,311 |
|
West Virginia |
82,225 |
82,225 |
196,450 |
|
Wisconsin |
276,175 |
276,175 |
276,175 |
|
Wyoming |
20,407 |
20,407 |
20,407 |
|
United States |
17,000,000 |
19,516,992 |
29,504,344 |
|
*Trigger law state ending Medicaid expansion if federal matching percentage is reduced. **State constitutional requirement to continue Medicaid Expansion. Source: The state-by-state numbers were created by combining estimates from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office on the national total number of people who would lose insurance by 2034 with a range of state-level data on the number of people enrolled in Affordable Care Act plans, the total number of Medicaid and Medicaid Expansion enrollees in each state, and analyses of how some Medicaid cuts in the bill would impact each state. The JEC Minority may issue updated estimates based on changes to the bill or updated analyses of its impacts. |
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