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Washington, DC—The Joint Economic Committee (JEC) today released “A Tale of Two Employment Surveys,” a report that delves into the growing disparity between two sets of employment data produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The BLS uses two distinct surveys to measure the number of jobs in America, a payroll survey that measures the number of people employers have on their payrolls and a household survey that measures the number of
individuals who report being employed.

“Measuring the economy is difficult in any circumstance, but nowhere is it more important than when assessing the labor market as the nation recovers from a recession,” said JEC Chairman Bennett.

The payroll survey released earlier this month indicates that the number of jobs has declined by 1.1 million since the end of the recession in November 2001, while the household survey indicates that the number of employed people has increased by 1.4 million. This jobs gap of 2.5 million is unprecedented. The JEC made calculations to control for an unusually large statistical adjustment the BLS made to its household estimate in January 2003. Making this correction, the JEC found that the household series still shows a gain of 1.1 million employed workers since the
end of the recession and a jobs gap of 2.2 million.

The BLS states that the payroll survey provides a more comprehensive estimate of the number of people on the payrolls of established organizations. However, only the household survey measures those self-employed and those working in agriculture.

“The disparity between the two surveys may be due to inaccuracies in the surveys, changes in the workforce, or both; only time will tell. For these reasons, focusing only on the payroll survey is misleading. Analysts should consider both the household and payroll surveys in trying to understand the employment situation,” said Bennett.

The complete report can be viewed at https://www.jec.senate.gov.

Sep 05 2003

Chairman Bennett: "Economy is Turning the Corner"

Bennett Explores the Current Employment Situation at JEC Hearing

Washington, DC—Senator Bob Bennett (R-UT), chairman of the Joint Economic Committee (JEC), held a hearing today to discuss the August employment numbers with Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Kathleen Utgoff. Bennett discussed the state of the current economy and asked the commissioner about a seemingly significant discrepancy in the employment numbers.

“Though not widely known, employment figures come from two different surveys,” said Chairman Bennett. “The BLS surveys individual households to determine the unemployment rate, while it asks businesses about the number of people on their payrolls to determine how many jobs have been gained or lost. Congress relies on these statistics to make policy decisions, and we need to be sure we are acting on the most accurate and complete statistics available.”

According to the household survey, the number of employed people has increased by 1.4 million since the end of the recession. The payroll survey, in contrast, indicates that roughly 1.1 million jobs have been lost over that period. Some of the disparity may reflect methodological differences between the two surveys, or it may be telling us of fundamental changes in our economy. A significant difference between the two surveys is that the household survey accounts for those who are self employed and for small emerging businesses that may be overlooked by the payroll survey.

Chairman Bennett also pointed to many measures that suggest that the economy is turning the corner. Economic growth in the second quarter exceeded three percent, and many forecasters anticipate further acceleration this quarter. The unemployment rate declined slightly from 6.2 percent to 6.1 percent in August, down from its peak of 6.4 percent in June, and well below the peaks of the 1980s and early 1990s.

“I am optimistic about recent developments in our economy, and believe the economic growth that is occurring will soon translate into resumed job growth,” said Chairman Bennett.

Senator Bennett’s complete statement and charts referred to in the hearing can be viewed at https://www.jec.senate.gov.

Aug 01 2003

Economy Continues to Show Signs of Growth

JEC Report Highlights Trends of Economic Growth

Washington, DC—The Joint Economic Committee (JEC) today released “10 Facts About the Economy,” a report that highlights a number of positive trends that have developed throughout the last few years. Despite challenges in some sectors of the economy, the fundamentals of the U.S. economy remain strong, including America’s world-class productivity levels and growth, and long-sought price stability.

“We are in the midst of the first recovery of a new economy,” said JEC Chairman Bob Bennett. “With the rise of information technology we are experiencing dynamics never before encountered. Real-time inventory capability has streamlined business practices and an increase in productivity due to technological advances affects the job market in new ways. Despite the pace of the current economic recovery, I am confident the second half of this year will see
stronger economic growth.”

The report points out that despite a series of unforeseeable shocks, the economy continues to grow. Since the end of the recession in November of 2001, incomes and spending have grown, and home sales have hit record highs. In addition, it was announced today that the unemployment rate saw a modest decrease, keeping the rate well below the peaks of the previous recessions in the 1980s and early 1990s.

The report follows economic indicators released this week from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) showing a surprising 2.4 percent increase in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the second quarter of this year. This increase exceeded expectations for two primary reasons. First, business investment rebounded more quickly than many economists had predicted, with business spending on equipment and software increasing at a 7.5 percent annualized rate, and investment in offices, factories, and other structures increasing at a 4.8 percent rate. This is a positive signal for a long-awaited resurgence of business investment activity. Second, government spending increased significantly, reflecting a sharp increase in defense spending.

The report can be found on the JEC website at https://www.jec.senate.gov, or contact Rebecca Wilder at (202) 224-0379.