Skip to main content

Kicking Consequences Down the Road: What Happens in 2027?

The Senate is racing toward a vote next week on Cassidy-Graham—a bill that impacts the health care of millions of people and one-sixth of the economy—without a full Congressional Budget Office (CBO) score, an unprecedented move that defies regular order. A complete score would likely show that the bill would kick millions of people off of their health insurance and raise premiums for working Americans. The effects of the bill are most similar to the Republican attempt to fully repeal the Affordable Care Act through the Obamacare Repeal Reconciliation Act (ORRA) from July 2017. Using CBO estimates from that bill, Cassidy-Graham will cut coverage by at least 32 million in 2027, and likely even more as many of the provisions in the bill are worse than ORRA. In addition, Cassidy-Graham threatens to increase premiums, raise uncompensated costs to hospitals, and devastate state and local economies:

  • If Cassidy-Graham is passed, 32 million Americans will lose coverage in 2027, including 809,000 in Ohio, 243,000 in Nevada, and 230,000 in New Mexico.
  • Average annual premiums will increase by more than $4,300, with the premium increase in Alaska exceeding $11,100.
  • Hospitals will buckle under the strain of $28.8 billion in additional uncompensated costs, further squeezing already strapped hospitals and passing greater costs on to taxpayers and patients. Uncompensated care will increase by $460 million in Arizona alone.
  • State economies will shed jobs in every sector and take a hit to economic growth. Ohio could lose 126,000 jobs across all industries. State output in Colorado may fall by $24 billion within the first four years of the full effects of repeal.