Weekly Economic Update: March 14-18, 2016
LAST WEEK
News & Commentary Weekly Highlights:
- Bloomberg: Europe Presses the Panic Button (Thursday)
- Wall Street Journal: Wealth Gap Not as Large as Earlier Estimates, Paper Finds (Thursday)
- Market Watch: Labor Market Not As Strong As Unemployment Rate Suggests, Former Fed Official Suggests (Tuesday)
- Bloomberg: Strong Dollar? That Depends on Where You Live in the U.S. (Monday)
- Wall Street Journal: Amid Global Slowdown, U.S. Gets Miscast as Savior (Monday)
Top Economic Indicator Highlights:
Labor Market Conditions Index (February)
- Index Points: -2.4
- Noteworthy: The labor market conditions index (LMCI) fell again after a downward revision to -0.8 in January. Among the factors, payroll growth and the gain in labor force participation were offset by the decline in average hourly earnings and temporary help payrolls. In January, the LMCI slowed to the lowest reading in a year, and February’s reading is the lowest since the recession ended. The index overall supports current expectations the Federal Open Market Committee meeting this week will yield no new action.
- Series Detail: The LMCI is a creation of the Federal Reserve Board to assess changes across the labor market, derived from 19 labor market indicators, including indicators of unemployment, underemployment, workweeks, wages, job vacancies, hiring, layoffs, quits, and consumer and business surveys.
THIS WEEK
Upcoming Economic Reports & Releases:
Major Indicators
- Producer Price Index for Final Demand (8:30am, Tuesday)
- Retail Sales (8:30am, Tuesday)
- Business Inventories (10am, Tuesday)
- Consumer Price Index (8:30am, Wednesday)
- Housing Starts and Building Permits (8:30am, Wednesday)
- Industrial Production (9:15am, Wednesday)
- Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (10am, Thursday)
Reports & Events
- Federal Open Market Committee Meeting Announcement and Forecasts (2pm, Wednesday)
Chart of the Week:
The chart above demonstrates the change in labor force participation rates for workers age 25 and older by educational attainment. Given that the recovery low in the overall labor force participation rate occurred in September 2015, the chart shows how each group’s participation has changed since the start of the recovery and since the recovery low. Not only are individuals with less education seeing the largest increases in their workforce participation since the recovery low, but those with less than a high school diploma are the only group to see their participation marginally increase above their recovery start level. However, it is important to keep in mind that those with less than a high school diploma make up less than 10% of the labor force. College graduates, who comprise nearly 40% of the labor force, have seen their participation continue to fall since the overall recovery low.